Monday, June 05, 2006

Cleaning out my email V - R.A.W., false Aristotelian dualisms, and probability logic.


....the false trap you've fallen into is another wacky Aristotelian dualism of things either being "absolutely right or wrong" or "absolutely relative". It's actually kind of related to the existentialist crisis - Nietszche, look out! - that if all things are relative, then there is no basis for any moral decision - which isn't "true" [accurate being a better word]. But the point being that all things are not EQUALLY relative... the point of probabalistic logic, fuzzy logic, what have you is removing false certainty and instead applying multiple value logic. [In it's most basic form, in any situation there exists a "Yes", a "No" AND a "Maybe"]. I can't remember if it's in Quantum Psych or one of his other books but he details several types of logic systems, including fuzzy logic, Bayesian logic and the multi value logic systems of Jan Ɓukasiewicz.

The upshot is, basically, you can apply probabilities instead of absolute certainties to anything you would have previously classified as "right" and "wrong". The probability that the current scientific model of the universe, ie earth round the sun, is accurate, give it a, I don't know... 95% chance of being right. Considering we have no idea of what "dark matter" is about, whether the universe is actually speeding up or slowing down, and why and how it all started, of course... The odds of Bigfoot's existence... say 50/50. The odds the sun rises tomorrow? 99.5% And so on...

The whole point is that when you start to think in absolute certainties about anything - be it the cosmological nature of the universe, the cultural tendencies of Japanese people, the likelihood someone is going to be an asshole or incompetent... you're previously determined model of reality decides beforehand, without regard to facts, what you see. Man is not rational, man is rationalizing.

As certain as you are that the earth revolves around the sun, the Holy Mother Church "knew" that the Greeks were absolutely wrong and they were right in that Apollo didn't drag the sun cross the heavens but that god placed the earth in the center of the universe...

Certainty in anything slowly creeps into certainty in most things. The idea that one is infallible in any aspect leads one to being a prick in most.

...some theories, if one is speaking in the scientific sense, and most other senses as well, are NOT RIGHT or WRONG... and no truthful researcher, mathematician or philosopher presents them as such. Theories, scientific or otherwise, are models based on the best collection and evaluation of available data. But all theories, if they are to be of any use at all have to be ready to incorporate new data, or new methods of collecting data, or any number of other possibilies.

ABSOLUTE certainty about anything leads to happy occurences like, say, the Inquisition, The Crusades, The Invasion of Iraq and the Holocaust.

Wilson postulates that his method of logic is relatively better [for him particularly, and most people generally] because it seems to lead to greater tolerance, understanding and clarity of thought while allowing you to accomplish more, learn more and have a more pleasant and interesting life. I'd tend to agree.

There's nothing in Wilson's system of logic that prevents anyone from judging whether or not any number of options or paths or courses is relatively "better" [more productive, effective, pragmatic, etc.] than another... and in fact I'd argue that his multi-modal method of thinking provides more options that the simple way such options generally break down... the incredibly simple and dualistic "this way" or "that way" [or more typically, amongst say, everyone "my way" and "the wrong way everyone else does it."]

In the absence, for example, of causing physical harm to somebody, cultural relativism, i.e. the crap way Japanese may go about about things... is entirely acceptable to me, but still frustrating, most of the time. I'd hazard a guess, that in your experiences having come across a totally dicked up bass ackwards way of doing something, it's completely Wrong in that from your cultural perspective [a culture that is established on efficiency and Getting Things Done] whereas the cultural emphasis from a Japanese is, I don't know, preserving the WA or somesuch thing...

Again, I don't think cultural relativity excuses all things... but it does explain a lot. And whatever you find objectionable within an experience is really just a result of your own cultural and ethical influence. ...culture + genetics + imprinting + environment + education + stupid luck and chance...

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