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Saturday, November 01, 2008

Correlation isn't causation, though it is instructive. And interesting.

Dietary changes and heart disease, via Free the Animal: What Causes Heart Disease?:
"...death by [myocardial infarction/heart attack] was unheard of in 1910 (about 100 years ago), had risen to 3,000 deaths per year by 1930, and to 500,000 by 1960. Then I provided eight food group categories, A - H, and indicated how much each had changed over the last 100 years...:

* A; sugar and sweeteners: 100% increase
* B; eggs, fruit (excl. citrus), vegetables, whole grain: Moderate decrease
* C; lowfat milk: 100% increase
* D; whole (full fat) milk: 50% decrease
* E; butter, lard, tallow: 70% decrease (30 lbs. per person per year to under 10)
* F; vegetable oils (incl. hydrogenated): 437% increase (11 lbs. pppy to 59)
* G; poultry: 280% increase (18 lbs. pppy to 70)
* H; beef; 46% increase (54 lbs. pppy to 79)

So, if one were to simply line it up by the numbers, the order would be like this:

1. Massive increase in vegetable oil consumption.
2. Huge increase in poultry consumption.
3. Large increase in sugar and sweeteners.
4. Large increase in low fat milk consumption.
5. Large decrease in animal fat consumption (butter, lard, tallow).
6. Moderate decrease in whole, full fat milk consumption.
7. Moderate increase in beef consumption.
8. Moderate decrease in eggs, fruit, vegetables and whole grains.

Of course, this is missing junk and highly processed foods.

Now, I agree with the commenter on the previous post. This does not establish causality. And yet, how many decades has it been now that the "health" establishment has been telling you, as though it was certain, that meat and saturated fat are the causes of heart disease?"

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